When will bitcoin's next bull market come?
Driven by unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and the global financial crisis, BTC fell below 18000 US dollars in June. In fact, the second quarter of 2022 was the worst quarter in about a decade. All these negative events, coupled with the weakening of investor interest, have led many experts in the field to believe that cryptocurrencies will dominate in the winter.
So when will bitcoin's next bull market come? In a recent interview, mark Yusko, head of Morgan Creek capital management, claimed that this period of price decline and uncertainty had ended. In his view, spring has come, followed by the recovery of bitcoin price: I think spring has come. If you look at the last two cycles, we have the same number of days in the cycle that starts in spring and ends in winter. Spring can last for several months. We don't need an immediate bull market.
Specifically, Yusko predicts that there will be a transition to cryptocurrency summer in 2024, when the next BTC halving will occur: then when we get to summer, that is when we will take the next step, and he speculates that this will come in the expectation of the next halving in 2024.
Halving is an event that occurs about every four years. By halving the block reward, the speed of creating new bitcoin can be reduced. Miners currently get 6.25 BTC per block, and this number will drop to 3.125 BTC by 2024. The event is considered highly bullish as it slows down the production of new coins. At the same time, if the demand remains unchanged or increases, the basic economic principle indicates that the value of assets should also increase.
In addition, bitcoin magazine said on social media that Bloomberg said that we may only be 2 years away from the next big explosion of bitcoin price.
The forecast for 2024 is related to the macro environment. At present, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that they will not stop raising interest rates until there is "convincing evidence" that inflation is falling. This is the highest interest rate increase in 28 years, because the inflation rate of the United States has jumped to a four-year high. As the Federal Reserve plans to absorb market liquidity, funds may flow into more stable assets such as bonds.
According to market analyst @ tedtalksmacro, the situation may start to change as policymakers may start cutting interest rates in 2024. In his latest article, analysts wrote: "2024 is the next big year of cryptocurrency".
The Fed's updated forecast materials show that policymakers are expected to start cutting interest rates in 2024, which is in line with the upcoming bitcoin halving.
Earlier, FTX Brett Harrison, President of us, tweeted that the crypto market would recover at a faster speed, and listed three factors to stimulate the market rebound, namely: 1. American regulators gave clear regulation; 2. More robust crypto options / futures market; 3. The United States approved spot crypto ETFs.
Brett Harrison pointed out that the regulatory clarity of us cryptocurrency trading platforms and other digital asset providers will make institutional investors confident to bet on cryptoassets for a long time; A more robust crypto futures and options market will also help introduce institutional capital, suppress volatility by providing effective capital hedging, and make it easier for companies to obtain crypto asset exposure; The approval of spot bitcoin ETFs may lead to another bull market, although the US Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet approved such products.
Yves Lamoureux, President of Lamoureux & Co, a macroeconomic research company, pointed out that the next turning point of bitcoin's price will be the halving event planned for 2024. According to Lamoureux, as the supply of bitcoin decreases, the asset will reflect its historical price trend of appreciation. In addition, the rebound will continue until 2025.